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Thu, June 13, 2013

Minicamp and Offseason Updates!

Despite being the dead part of the NFL season, alot has still been hitting the newswire over the last couple of weeks with OTA's, minicamps, and free agents.

The most recent bit of news was Ahmad Bradshaw is headed to the Colts.  For Vick Ballard, that is bad news, but not the end of the world.  Bradshaw is still young enough to have pop in his game, but of course the ankles are always waiting to act up.  He's worth a pick as a low low RB2, but he's the kind of guy you settle for and build in a backup plan given his injury concerns.  This makes Ballard a bit more of a risk/reward pick.  Before, you'd have to take him in the 6th or 7th round and just expect Shonn Greene type of production.  Now, you can get him later, 10th or 11th round, probably bench him and wait for Bradshaw to get dinged up.  Deeper leagues, Ballard will still have value week to week at the goalline and he'll get a few yeards to boot, but while healthy, Bradshaw is the guy to own.

Trent Richardson won't see much action for awhile with another injury keeping him out at least until preseason games begin.  Not a great bit of news for keeper owners, and probably drops him to the early second round in most leagues if he appears to be slowed down when things get meaningful.  This is a wait and see, but keeper owners should be a little nervous to invest here as he played banged up alot last season and saw declining production as the aches and pains built up at the end of the year.

Willis McGahee was cut by the Broncos, so it is another step in the right direction for Montee Ball.  Not to mention the "wink wink" from Peyton Manning that Ball would be in the mix and having an impact early for this offense. 

Eddie Lacy showed up overweight to minicamps, not time to be nervous as he has plenty of time to ramp up, but this raises an eyebrow, especially with the Packers giving first team reps to the incumbents Green and Starks.  Not touching that situation until we start to see some clear trends.

RG3 is making great strides and is healing at an Adrian Peterson pace!  He still plans to start week one as he is already running and cutting.  We don't expect as many chances with the runs, but he'll still be a #1 QB who you can probably get at a tiny discount.  Keeper owners can rejoice, but here too, have a backup plan like Dalton, Eli, or Carson Palmer. 

Gronk's surgery recovery could last into the season, you have to be wondering how to value he and healthy Aaron Hernandez.  Gronk's upside is still unbelievable, so maybe this means he's more of a value than before, but Hernandez is probably the safer bet.  Draft according to roster composition and depending on how many games Gronk is expected to miss.  14 games of Gronk plus a 2 week fill in is WAY worth a 3rd round pick given how dreadful TE was last year. 

Tebow is not worth drafting.  Third string.  He'll have a few spots, that's all.

According to Mock Draft results, people are reconvincing themselves on the upside of Chris Johnson, Demarco Murray, Darren Mcfadden, and Ryan Mathews.  I'm leaning toward the safer backs in that range like Mo Jo, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, and Matt Forte. 

Mock Drafts are up at the Four Letter's site, and they have a bunch of off-season talkers on video.

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